tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4807 at 14:35, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4807 Southwest Flight history → SAN 14:35 MCI 19:50 34% 9% 0.6% 34%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 2h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 8h 32m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 11m Chicago ORD 14:58 → MCI 16:49AA 4745 · flown by Republic 8h 34m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 47m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 54m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 5h 42m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → MCI 15:00WN 3290 6h 20m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:07 → ORD 19:54AA 811 2h 41m Chicago ORD 22:35 → MCI 00:19 +1AA 3695 · flown by Envoy 9h 12m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:07 → DFW 16:28AA 2476 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → MCI 19:01AA 2047 5h 54m 62% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 15:15 → DAL 20:25WN 3582 50m Dallas DAL 21:15 → MCI 22:50WN 4387 5h 35m 61% 38%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:35 → MIA 20:54AA 2979 51m Miami MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670 9h 24m 11% 8%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON