Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4162 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4162 SAN 08:30 → MCO 16:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 396 SAN 10:03 → MCO 18:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4162 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:30	MCO 16:35	22%	6%	15.7%	76%
AS 707 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:06	MCO 05:18	24%	3%	15.8%	87%worse than usual
WN 4874 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:55	MCO 05:55	26%	6%	11.9%	70%
AS 396 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:03	MCO 18:17	35%	8%	17.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 19:50 → PHX 21:15WN 3526	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508	7h 30m	84%	61%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	7h 25m	95%	60%
Delta Details →	SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13DL 4087 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547	7h 27m	86%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON