tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3206 at 20:01, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3206 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 20:01 MFR 22:20 34% 8% 1.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 96% 88%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 11m Portland PDX 10:40 → MFR 11:53AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest 5h 03m 95% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:21 → SEA 14:25AS 475 3h 22m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 7h 52m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 2h 05m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 6h 29m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:11 → MFR 12:50AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 2h 30m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 12m Denver DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337 6h 30m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:35 → SEA 21:35AS 1431 1h 05m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 5h 29m 64% 53%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest 4h 12m 71% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 07:18 → SEA 10:26AS 512 54m Seattle SEA 11:20 → MFR 12:50AS 3088 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 50% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON