Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1480 American Flight history →	SAN 22:25	MIA 06:36	18%	4%	2.4%	82%
AA 2979 American Flight history →	SAN 12:35	MIA 20:54	33%	9%	2.4%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 39m	99%	81%
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	10h 12m	99%	77%
American Details →	SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466	2h 21m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 13m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 47m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	10h 03m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	8h 56m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367	3h 36m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	13h 08m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	2h 11m Detroit	DTW 15:59 → MIA 19:18DL 866	10h 03m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205	7h 07m	72%	55%
American Details →	SAN 09:21 → PHL 17:45AA 433	50m Philadelphia	PHL 18:35 → MIA 21:38AA 2111	9h 17m	60%	40%
American Details →	SAN 13:55 → DFW 19:15AA 2456	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823	7h 01m	56%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON