tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3516 Southwest Flight history → SAN 10:35 MKE 16:35 25% 6% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 6h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 22m Denver DEN 13:30 → MKE 17:04UA 4802 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 8h 57m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 02m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 7h 47m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 9h 25m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 2h 38m Houston IAH 14:20 → MKE 17:06UA 6164 · flown by Mesa 8h 51m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest 8h 47m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 50m Detroit DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 64% 51%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 48m Denver DEN 20:27 → MKE 23:59UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest 5h 52m 55% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:25 → MKE 01:55 +1WN 4136 5h 50m 31% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON