tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3005 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 22:26 MRY 23:58 20% 5% 3.7% 76%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 12:53 MRY 14:28 28% 9% 2.8% 83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 5h 45m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006 3h 00m Los Angeles LAX 10:21 → MRY 11:42UA 5241 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest 6h 35m 94% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477 2h 07m Seattle SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon 7h 33m 88% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:41 → PHX 11:09AA 2461 2h 34m Phoenix PHX 13:43 → MRY 15:38AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:23 → PHX 17:49AA 2470 2h 48m Phoenix PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest 6h 10m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 2h 38m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:46 → PHX 14:16AA 2477 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 5h 42m 97% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:21 → SEA 14:25AS 475 55m Seattle SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon 6h 21m 60% 52%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m 75% 51%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON