tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 96% 90%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 52m Denver DEN 14:00 → MSO 16:20UA 4783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → MSO 00:28 +1DL 1723 6h 27m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → MSO 22:40AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 9h 20m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:16 → SEA 18:14AS 1381 2h 16m Seattle SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon 6h 39m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 24m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 8h 06m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477 3h 41m Seattle SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon 8h 10m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 47m Portland PDX 14:30 → MSO 17:01AS 3097 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 62% 50%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:55 → DFW 19:15AA 2456 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → MSO 22:40AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 7h 45m 58% 47%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 62% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON