Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2134 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2134 SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2647 SAN 18:10 → MSP 23:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2134 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:20	MSP 12:04	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:48	MSP 17:40	15%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2191 Delta Flight history →	SAN 15:19	MSP 20:58	17%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2647 Delta Flight history →	SAN 18:10	MSP 23:56	18%	5%	0.8%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON