tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 10:40, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2325 Southwest Flight history → SAN 09:00 MSY 14:40 32% 5% 0.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 3h 26m Houston IAH 15:08 → MSY 16:27UA 1493 8h 12m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 42m 99% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 09:10 → SAT 14:00WN 2499 1h 45m San Antonio SAT 15:45 → MSY 17:20WN 2986 6h 10m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → MDW 12:35WN 3513 1h 50m Chicago MDW 14:25 → MSY 16:40WN 3743 8h 10m 99% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:20 → DAL 11:25WN 3906 1h 30m Dallas DAL 12:55 → MSY 14:25WN 3790 6h 05m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 56m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 89% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → MSY 16:10DL 2096 7h 55m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224 8h 44m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → MSY 23:50WN 2055 5h 25m 57% 35%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 56m San Francisco SFO 12:08 → MSY 18:33UA 246 7h 07m 41% 29%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:25 → MSY 01:55 +1WN 2281 5h 50m 31% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON