Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4198 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4198 SAN 07:15 → OAK 08:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4842 SAN 16:20 → OAK 17:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4198 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:15	OAK 08:50	7%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 4166 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:50	OAK 11:25	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
AS 3320 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:14	OAK 09:57	15%	5%	0.9%	90%
WN 3517 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:45	OAK 13:25	16%	4%	0.8%	83%
AS 3218 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:30	OAK 14:10	22%	8%	0.9%	85%
WN 3518 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:20	OAK 14:55	27%	7%	0.8%	47%
WN 3519 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:30	OAK 16:05	32%	9%	0.8%	54%
WN 4841 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:00	OAK 22:35	35%	9%	0.9%	44%
WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:20	OAK 19:55	35%	11%	0.8%	52%
WN 4842 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:20	OAK 17:50	35%	9%	0.8%	36%
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON