Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 483 SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 254 SAN 11:07 → OGG 14:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 483 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:55	OGG 21:55	24%	7%	1.1%	85%
WN 2618 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:25	OGG 13:15	25%	6%	0.8%	64%
AS 254 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:07	OGG 14:12	26%	6%	0.8%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006	1h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46UA 417	8h 26m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	7h 52m	90%	75%
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 19:10 → OGG 21:44UA 1124	8h 35m	87%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON