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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3131 at 11:15, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3131 Southwest Flight history → SAN 11:15 OMA 16:30 24% 6% 0.6% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 9h 00m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 3h 19m Chicago ORD 16:06 → OMA 17:56AA 4724 · flown by Republic 9h 41m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 12m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 8h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → OMA 16:49DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → MDW 12:35WN 3513 1h 35m Chicago MDW 14:10 → OMA 15:40WN 435 7h 10m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 42m Denver DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327 7h 49m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:30 → ORD 13:59AA 1261 3h 31m Chicago ORD 17:30 → OMA 19:18AA 3738 · flown by Envoy 9h 48m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:40 → ORD 13:09UA 1069 2h 38m Chicago ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207 8h 48m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 52m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 7h 48m 69% 57%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:08 → DFW 20:30AA 2459 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22AA 2628 6h 14m 70% 49%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3497 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:20 → OMA 21:55WN 1659 5h 00m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON