Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1457 at 22:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1457 SAN 22:25 → ORD 04:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1478 SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1457 United Flight history →	SAN 22:25	ORD 04:36	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
UA 1069 United Flight history →	SAN 06:40	ORD 13:09	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	SAN 22:59	ORD 05:14	11%	5%	1.5%	90%
AA 1261 American Flight history →	SAN 07:30	ORD 13:59	16%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	22%	7%	0.6%	82%
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	24%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 2484 American Flight history →	SAN 09:57	ORD 16:29	25%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 811 American Flight history →	SAN 13:07	ORD 19:54	25%	9%	0.9%	74%
AS 1493 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:23	ORD 23:36	25%	7%	1.4%	70%
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	25%	4%	1.3%	75%
UA 1779 United Flight history →	SAN 14:00	ORD 20:20	26%	7%	0.6%	70%
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	37%	7%	1.4%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:20 → LAX 07:21UA 1006	54m Los Angeles	LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946	6h 15m	82%	72%
United Details →	SAN 10:49 → LAX 11:58UA 5384 · flown by SkyWest	52m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457	6h 16m	77%	60%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 14m	83%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON