Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2189 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 19:00	PAE 22:00	31%	14%	1.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399	1h 23m Portland	PDX 10:52 → PAE 11:53AS 2126 · flown by Horizon	5h 03m	96%	86%
Alaska Details →	SAN 10:52 → PHX 12:23AS 3023 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Phoenix	PHX 14:23 → PAE 17:23AS 674	6h 31m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	SAN 16:13 → LAS 17:39AS 2092 · flown by Horizon	2h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366	6h 17m	93%	67%
Alaska Details →	SAN 16:14 → SFO 17:49AS 2314 · flown by Horizon	2h 18m San Francisco	SFO 20:07 → PAE 22:12AS 2083 · flown by Horizon	5h 58m	96%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Las Vegas	LAS 19:50 → PAE 22:30AS 366	5h 15m	67%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON