Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2955 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2955 SAN 06:15 → PHL 14:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 433 SAN 09:21 → PHL 17:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2955 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	PHL 14:40	12%	2%	0.9%	91%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	SAN 21:55	PHL 06:13	16%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 433 American Flight history →	SAN 09:21	PHL 17:45	27%	6%	0.9%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 18:55 → DEN 22:27UA 519	1h 32m Denver	DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:31 +1UA 1214	7h 36m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	7h 28m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169	7h 57m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON