Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3447 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3447 SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4578 SAN 16:12 → PHX 17:41 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3447 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:40	PHX 08:10	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 625 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	PHX 07:54	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
WN 3524 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:00	PHX 09:20	17%	4%	0.8%	82%
WN 681 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:15	PHX 10:40	19%	4%	0.8%	81%
WN 4134 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:40	PHX 12:05	26%	5%	0.8%	58%
AA 2461 American Flight history →	SAN 09:41	PHX 11:09	26%	8%	0.9%	82%
AA 2477 American Flight history →	SAN 12:46	PHX 14:16	33%	10%	0.9%	73%
AS 3023 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:52	PHX 12:23	33%	12%	2.3%	63%
AS 3061 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 16:45	PHX 18:11	36%	17%	2.2%	57%
AA 2466 American Flight history →	SAN 19:15	PHX 20:44	37%	13%	0.9%	54%
WN 765 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:50	PHX 15:15	38%	9%	0.8%	56%
AA 2470 American Flight history →	SAN 16:23	PHX 17:49	39%	12%	1.0%	59%
WN 2521 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:10	PHX 18:35	39%	12%	0.8%	28%
WN 3527 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	PHX 23:15	40%	14%	1.1%	47%
WN 3525 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:45	PHX 16:10	41%	11%	0.8%	45%
WN 4173 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:55	PHX 20:15	41%	14%	0.9%	27%
WN 3526 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:50	PHX 21:15	42%	15%	1.0%	55%
F9 4578 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:12	PHX 17:41	43%	16%	1.1%	66%
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON