tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2499 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2499 Southwest Flight history → SAN 09:10 SAT 14:00 22% 4% 0.7% 90%worse than usual
WN 3530 Southwest Flight history → SAN 20:25 SAT 01:15 37% 11% 0.8% 29%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 8h 20m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986 6h 30m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 2h 49m Houston IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819 7h 24m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → BNA 12:45WN 3478 1h 40m Nashville BNA 14:25 → SAT 16:45WN 4371 8h 10m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15WN 2970 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 10:20 → SAT 15:00WN 2333 6h 25m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 1h 52m Phoenix PHX 09:46 → SAT 14:03AA 450 5h 43m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 6h 38m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:20 → DAL 11:25WN 3906 2h 00m Dallas DAL 13:25 → SAT 14:30WN 1400 6h 10m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → SAT 23:35WN 4451 5h 10m 57% 40%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:55 → LAS 14:20WN 2183 55m Las Vegas LAS 15:15 → SAT 19:55WN 2334 5h 00m 57% 40%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:55 → PHX 20:15WN 4173 50m Phoenix PHX 21:05 → SAT 01:20 +1WN 3328 4h 25m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON