tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2175 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 22:32 SBA 23:44 7% 0% 19.2% 93%
AS 2177 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 12:49 SBA 14:02 37% 8% 1.9% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 5h 44m 96% 89%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 18m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 15m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15WN 2970 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → SBA 10:40WN 2336 4h 05m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 04m 83% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 18m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 6h 27m 94% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:20 → OAK 14:55WN 3518 3h 05m Oakland OAK 18:00 → SBA 19:10WN 590 5h 50m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 4h 16m 75% 51%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 51m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → SBA 17:37UA 5862 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON