Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1431 SAN 18:35 → SEA 21:35 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	16%	3%	0.9%	90%
AS 1473 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:18	SEA 09:19	18%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	18%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	24%	6%	0.9%	85%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	24%	5%	0.8%	86%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	25%	5%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AS 753 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:40	SEA 11:44	28%	4%	1.0%	74%
AS 1477 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:09	SEA 13:13	31%	5%	1.1%	75%
AS 512 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:18	SEA 10:26	31%	3%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AS 475 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:21	SEA 14:25	36%	5%	1.0%	60%
AS 1575 Alaska	SAN 14:03	SEA 17:02	40%	7%	1.1%	no record
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:35	SEA 20:35	40%	8%	1.2%	69%
AS 1381 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:16	SEA 18:14	41%	7%	1.2%	57%
WN 4769 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:00	SEA 16:55	44%	10%	0.6%	53%
AS 1431 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:35	SEA 21:35	46%	9%	1.7%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON