Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2830 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2830 SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 3532 SAN 09:20 → SFO 11:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 9% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2830 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	SFO 08:04	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SAN 16:09	SFO 17:49	25%	11%	0.6%	76%
WN 4607 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:05	SFO 08:45	26%	8%	1.3%	62%
UA 2428 United Flight history →	SAN 11:44	SFO 13:30	26%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 2309 United Flight history →	SAN 11:01	SFO 12:47	29%	9%	0.6%	68%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SFO 20:07	29%	14%	0.6%	62%
UA 2274 United Flight history →	SAN 07:15	SFO 09:01	30%	8%	0.6%	53%
UA 1763 United Flight history →	SAN 13:39	SFO 15:19	31%	11%	0.6%	74%
WN 1677 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:15	SFO 13:00	33%	13%	1.3%	35%
AS 291 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:27	SFO 23:08	33%	11%	2.1%	42%
AS 3232 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 18:31	SFO 20:12	34%	18%	1.7%	28%
AS 3352 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 13:30	SFO 15:14	35%	14%	1.4%	74%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SAN 19:41	SFO 21:28	35%	16%	0.6%	37%
AS 3347 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:04	SFO 12:51	35%	13%	1.2%	64%
WN 3533 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:20	SFO 19:00	35%	17%	1.2%	38%
WN 4181 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:30	SFO 17:05	39%	17%	1.2%	36%
WN 2272 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:30	SFO 15:10	40%	16%	1.2%	12%
UA 1113 United Flight history →	SAN 09:26	SFO 11:12	41%	11%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
AS 3205 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:04	SFO 11:49	42%	13%	1.3%	27%
F9 3383 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 19:46	SFO 21:38	43%	24%	7.4%	27%
AS 3463 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:04	SFO 09:52	43%	14%	1.4%	63%
WN 3534 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SFO 20:45	44%	23%	1.4%	12%
WN 4772 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:10	SFO 21:55	44%	22%	1.4%	12%
WN 3532 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:20	SFO 11:00	46%	17%	1.3%	9%
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:14	SFO 17:49	72%	10%	3.8%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON