Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1117 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1117 SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4810 SAN 15:45 → SLC 18:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1117 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	SLC 09:21	8%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SAN 09:46	SLC 12:50	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
AS 3122 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:55	SLC 12:09	17%	5%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:15	SLC 16:18	20%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SAN 17:01	SLC 19:59	20%	6%	0.7%	82%
DL 849 Delta	SAN 19:13	SLC 22:15	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3017 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 18:49	SLC 21:57	25%	9%	0.6%	73%
AS 3488 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SLC 19:02	30%	8%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 4810 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	SLC 18:40	34%	8%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON