Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3544 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 3544 SAN 06:45 → SMF 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3550 SAN 19:30 → SMF 21:10 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3544 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:45	SMF 08:35	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 4356 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:40	SMF 10:20	13%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 4187 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:20	SMF 11:00	22%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3546 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:30	SMF 12:05	24%	5%	0.7%	81%
AS 3006 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:56	SMF 21:45	27%	9%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
WN 1435 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:30	SMF 13:20	28%	7%	0.7%	65%
AS 3035 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:13	SMF 17:00	32%	9%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:53	32%	9%	0.8%	74%
AS 1621 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:47	SMF 23:32	32%	6%	1.5%	67%
WN 1700 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:40	SMF 14:20	34%	9%	0.7%	69%
WN 3547 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:55	SMF 15:35	39%	10%	0.7%	27%
WN 3551 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:00	SMF 22:45	40%	13%	0.8%	34%
WN 4552 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	SMF 16:40	41%	12%	0.7%	60%
WN 4464 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	SMF 17:20	42%	12%	0.7%	60%
WN 3549 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:00	SMF 19:40	45%	14%	0.8%	45%
WN 3550 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:30	SMF 21:10	46%	15%	0.8%	50%
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON