tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3552 at 13:30, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3552 Southwest Flight history → SAN 13:30 STL 19:05 33% 7% 0.5% 39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 3h 49m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 9h 27m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 52m Detroit DTW 16:40 → STL 17:19DL 2822 9h 04m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 3h 26m Chicago ORD 16:13 → STL 17:46AA 4537 · flown by Republic 9h 31m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:45 → SMF 08:35WN 3544 1h 50m Sacramento SMF 10:25 → STL 16:05WN 920 7h 20m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → STL 16:46DL 3185 8h 26m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 8h 54m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → MDW 12:35WN 3513 2h 10m Chicago MDW 14:45 → STL 15:55WN 2903 7h 25m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 9h 38m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → HOU 21:45WN 3212 55m Houston HOU 22:40 → STL 00:45 +1WN 2087 6h 20m 62% 45%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 12:12 → STL 18:17UA 2090 6h 51m 59% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → LAS 17:50WN 4111 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 19:00 → STL 00:15 +1WN 4539 5h 50m 61% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON