Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4773 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4773 SAN 08:35 → STS 10:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4191 SAN 21:45 → STS 23:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4773 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:35	STS 10:20	12%	3%	1.8%	91%
AS 3233 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:24	STS 10:24	17%	6%	2.2%	90%
AS 3302 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 21:03	STS 22:58	22%	7%	2.4%	80%
WN 4191 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	STS 23:35	24%	8%	2.3%	57%
AS 2258 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:37	STS 18:23	50%	17%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON