tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4511 Southwest Flight history → SAN 08:35 TPA 16:25 23% 5% 16.6% 82%
AS 1639 Alaska Flight history → SAN 08:32 TPA 16:29 26% 5% 17.3% 86%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 23:50 → TPA 06:01 +1DL 2077 10h 00m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 1715 3h 23m Denver DEN 17:50 → TPA 23:29UA 1961 9h 34m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 12m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 14:37 → TPA 22:58UA 2851 10h 32m 100% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:16 → SEA 18:14AS 1381 3h 04m Seattle SEA 21:18 → TPA 05:48 +1AS 639 11h 32m 98% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 11:15 → BWI 19:20WN 3390 2h 00m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578 9h 40m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:35 → TPA 19:13UA 2375 9h 38m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:30 → BNA 18:30WN 4147 2h 55m Nashville BNA 21:25 → TPA 00:20 +1WN 2173 8h 50m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 49m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 7h 58m 62% 41%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:07 → DFW 16:28AA 2476 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:19 → TPA 20:54AA 844 6h 47m 66% 34%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → TPA 22:08AA 2401 6h 48m 68% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON