tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2321 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 09:16 TUL 14:30 37% 10% 0.0% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:30 → ORD 13:59AA 1261 3h 01m Chicago ORD 17:00 → TUL 19:06AA 3827 · flown by Envoy 9h 36m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → IAH 11:42UA 2760 2h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 00m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:07 → ORD 19:54AA 811 2h 11m Chicago ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165 2h 40m Houston IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:01UA 5441 · flown by SkyWest 7h 48m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 9h 49m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 49m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:51 → TUL 18:03AA 4133 · flown by Envoy 8h 03m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:32 → DFW 21:49AA 2485 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 5h 15m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:55 → DFW 19:15AA 2456 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → TUL 21:15AA 1514 5h 20m 63% 43%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 20:35 → TUL 01:15 +1WN 4339 5h 10m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON