tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3555 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3555 Southwest Flight history → SAN 08:35 TUS 10:05 10% 2% 0.6% 92%
WN 4876 Southwest Flight history → SAN 19:40 TUS 21:10 39% 12% 0.7% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → PHX 07:54AA 625 2h 11m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → TUS 11:09AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 4h 49m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 09:30 → TUS 11:08DL 3766 · flown by SkyWest 4h 53m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 1h 22m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 5h 57m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:00 → PHX 09:20WN 3524 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 13:00 → TUS 13:50WN 4870 5h 50m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:41 → PHX 11:09AA 2461 2h 26m Phoenix PHX 13:35 → TUS 14:28AA 6373 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:46 → PHX 14:16AA 2477 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 17:05 → TUS 17:54AA 4126 · flown by Envoy 5h 08m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 50m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 61% 48%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 12:23 → TUS 14:47UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 68% 46%
AmericanDetails → SAN 19:15 → PHX 20:44AA 2466 1h 11m Phoenix PHX 21:55 → TUS 22:42AA 2635 3h 27m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON