tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → SAT 13:20 BOS 18:47 31% 9% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:10 → BWI 09:30WN 3559 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → BOS 12:10WN 887 6h 00m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977 5h 58m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 25m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:40 → DCA 11:02AA 1718 1h 57m Washington DCA 12:59 → BOS 14:44AA 4380 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 07m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 46m Denver DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49UA 558 7h 09m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:03 → SLC 19:59DL 2685 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 23:32 → BOS 06:05 +1DL 696 11h 02m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:18 → BOS 13:33AA 1611 6h 32m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193 55m Nashville BNA 20:35 → BOS 00:15 +1WN 459 5h 50m 72% 53%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590 55m St Louis STL 19:55 → BOS 23:30WN 4724 5h 40m 75% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAT 14:10 → PHL 18:55AA 2489 46m Philadelphia PHL 19:41 → BOS 21:12AA 3327 6h 02m 65% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON