Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4512 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4512 SAT 05:40 → DAL 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1316 SAT 18:00 → DAL 19:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4512 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:40	DAL 06:55	3%	1%	0.7%	88%
WN 1353 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 06:35	DAL 07:45	3%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 09:45	DAL 10:55	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 4195 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 11:45	DAL 12:55	12%	2%	0.7%	82%
WN 4299 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 15:10	DAL 16:25	23%	5%	0.7%	54%
WN 4553 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 21:40	DAL 22:50	29%	8%	0.7%	72%
WN 1338 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 20:05	DAL 21:15	31%	8%	0.7%	45%
WN 1316 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 18:00	DAL 19:15	31%	7%	0.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON