tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1718 American Flight history → SAT 06:40 DCA 11:02 7% 3% 0.8% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 09m Houston IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56UA 2047 5h 26m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 43m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 2h 31m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 19m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:24 → ORD 09:29AA 632 1h 16m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 6h 35m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 54m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 07m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 3h 07m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 8h 12m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → DFW 07:21AA 2266 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624 6h 58m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 5h 02m 72% 59%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193 50m Nashville BNA 20:30 → DCA 23:20WN 497 4h 55m 71% 53%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590 55m St Louis STL 19:55 → DCA 22:55WN 3908 5h 05m 75% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON