Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1471 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1471 SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3568 SAT 18:30 → DEN 20:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1471 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:30	DEN 06:40	3%	1%	0.5%	92%
UA 1464 United Flight history →	SAT 05:40	DEN 06:59	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 09:05	DEN 10:15	9%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 1090 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 12:25	DEN 13:40	14%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	14%	5%	0.5%	84%
F9 3707 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 19:39	DEN 21:14	18%	7%	0.7%	78%
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	18%	6%	0.5%	76%
WN 4678 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 14:10	DEN 15:25	21%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 3568 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 18:30	DEN 20:00	23%	7%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON