Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2342 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2342 SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3311 SAT 17:35 → DFW 18:59 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	4%	2%	0.9%	91%
AA 2266 American Flight history →	SAT 06:01	DFW 07:21	4%	2%	1.0%	87%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	7%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:31	DFW 10:50	10%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 12:26	DFW 13:45	10%	3%	1.0%	77%
AA 4084 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 13:44	DFW 15:04	12%	3%	0.9%	79%
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 11:04	DFW 12:21	13%	5%	0.8%	70%
AA 3878 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 19:08	DFW 20:28	15%	5%	1.4%	69%
OO 4967 SkyWest	SAT 16:30	DFW 17:56	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 14:48	DFW 16:11	16%	7%	0.8%	69%
AA 499 American Flight history →	SAT 20:23	DFW 21:44	18%	8%	1.3%	54%
AA 3311 American Flight history →	SAT 17:35	DFW 18:59	20%	8%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON