tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4582 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4582 Southwest Flight history → SAT 06:05 ELP 06:35 3% 1% 0.6% 96%
WN 1822 Southwest Flight history → SAT 21:15 ELP 21:45 28% 9% 0.7% 41%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471 1h 10m Denver DEN 07:50 → ELP 09:40WN 1201 5h 10m 97% 91%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:50 → LAS 06:30WN 1662 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 07:35 → ELP 10:20WN 3163 5h 30m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 1353 3h 15m Dallas DAL 11:00 → ELP 11:40WN 1310 6h 05m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 7h 40m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315 1h 05m Houston HOU 07:35 → ELP 08:25WN 4481 4h 05m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ELP 13:08AA 3506 · flown by Envoy 7h 08m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 1h 34m Denver DEN 11:45 → ELP 13:35UA 792 5h 42m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:30 → ELP 09:19AA 1801 5h 18m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:30 → DEN 20:00WN 3568 55m Denver DEN 20:55 → ELP 22:50WN 1319 5h 20m 75% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 12:50 → HOU 13:55WN 3566 55m Houston HOU 14:50 → ELP 15:45WN 1979 3h 55m 68% 45%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:35 → PHX 17:55WN 3585 50m Phoenix PHX 18:45 → ELP 21:00WN 4551 4h 25m 59% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON