tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2233 United Flight history → SAT 06:27 EWR 11:22 5% 2% 0.7% 93%
UA 1261 United Flight history → SAT 13:35 EWR 18:30 22% 11% 0.7% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 01m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 2h 33m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 59m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 41m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 57m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 3h 03m Denver DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423 9h 20m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 10m Houston IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371 8h 03m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:37 → IAH 10:44UA 2827 3h 02m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 7h 53m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 30m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON