tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 4% 2% 0.6% 95%
UA 2250 United Flight history → SAT 12:01 IAD 16:28 8% 4% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 1h 01m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 46m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 41m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 29m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 6h 32m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 47m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 2h 15m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 05m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 5h 37m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 06m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON