Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 469 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 469 SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2323 SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 469 United Flight history →	SAT 05:30	IAH 06:37	3%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 2827 United Flight history →	SAT 09:37	IAH 10:44	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 410 United Flight history →	SAT 07:43	IAH 08:50	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 5658 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 19:20	IAH 20:33	10%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 404 United Flight history →	SAT 16:18	IAH 17:25	16%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2323 United Flight history →	SAT 17:57	IAH 19:04	17%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 6278 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 11:43	IAH 12:55	9%	4%	1.4%	91%
UA 6281 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 14:15	IAH 15:27	20%	8%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON