Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1662 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1662 SAT 05:50 → LAS 06:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 963 SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1662 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:50	LAS 06:30	4%	1%	0.6%	81%
WN 2343 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 10:55	LAS 11:40	11%	2%	0.6%	74%
WN 3575 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 14:40	LAS 15:20	29%	8%	0.6%	60%
F9 3417 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 21:32	LAS 22:19	32%	12%	1.1%	78%
WN 3576 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:20	LAS 18:10	34%	10%	0.6%	36%
WN 963 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 20:35	LAS 21:20	34%	10%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON