Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4951 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4951 SAT 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 404 SAT 13:05 → LAX 14:10 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4951 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 07:00	LAX 08:20	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2534 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:19	LAX 08:20	9%	4%	0.5%	92%
AA 6307 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 15:09	LAX 16:27	12%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 2588 Delta Flight history →	SAT 16:46	LAX 17:51	14%	5%	0.5%	88%
WN 404 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 13:05	LAX 14:10	22%	4%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON