tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1432 at 11:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1432 Southwest Flight history → SAT 11:00 MCI 12:55 7% 2% 0.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471 2h 00m Denver DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15WN 1584 5h 45m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:40 → DAL 06:55WN 4512 1h 40m Dallas DAL 08:35 → MCI 10:10WN 1343 4h 30m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 2h 40m Denver DEN 09:39 → MCI 12:26UA 2159 6h 46m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:55 → BNA 09:10WN 3557 3h 20m Nashville BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063 7h 15m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 23m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:03UA 2266 4h 33m 97% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:25 → MDW 09:00WN 3583 1h 20m Chicago MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529 5h 20m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315 1h 00m Houston HOU 07:30 → MCI 09:25WN 1037 4h 05m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:32 → ORD 20:33UA 1316 52m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 5h 45m 72% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 19:10 → MCI 23:55WN 2266 6h 35m 67% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON