Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4608 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4608 SAT 05:00 → MCO 08:45 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 2690 SAT 17:45 → MCO 21:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4608 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 05:00	MCO 08:45	2%	1%	9.0%	98%
F9 1654 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 09:51	MCO 13:43	16%	7%	17.4%	77%
WN 2690 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:45	MCO 21:30	26%	10%	17.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON