Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3583 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3583 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 06:25	MDW 09:00	4%	1%	0.7%	82%
WN 3584 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 15:20	MDW 17:55	22%	5%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SAT 06:05 → ELP 06:35WN 4582	1h 05m El Paso	ELP 07:40 → MDW 11:35WN 1813	5h 30m	99%	92%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:50 → LAS 06:30WN 1662	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 08:20 → MDW 13:55WN 2271	8h 05m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:40 → DAL 06:55WN 4512	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	5h 05m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	SAT 06:55 → BNA 09:10WN 3557	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	5h 25m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471	3h 20m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 55m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	SAT 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 1353	2h 20m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	5h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 36m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315	1h 40m Houston	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	5h 20m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:30 → DEN 20:00WN 3568	50m Denver	DEN 20:50 → MDW 00:15 +1WN 1615	5h 45m	72%	54%
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573	55m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044	4h 35m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON