tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2986 at 15:45, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2986 Southwest Flight history → SAT 15:45 MSY 17:20 20% 7% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471 1h 20m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 6h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 3h 16m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315 1h 20m Houston HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796 3h 40m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 37m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 05m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 31m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 11:00 → MCI 12:55WN 1432 2h 40m Kansas City MCI 15:35 → MSY 17:35WN 2577 6h 35m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAT 08:00 → DFW 09:24AA 2377 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MSY 14:12AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 6h 12m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573 1h 00m Houston HOU 20:40 → MSY 21:55WN 4756 3h 25m 72% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON