Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1332 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1332 SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1316 SAT 17:32 → ORD 20:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1332 United Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ORD 09:38	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 632 American Flight history →	SAT 06:24	ORD 09:29	7%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 2824 United Flight history →	SAT 13:20	ORD 16:21	16%	7%	0.7%	78%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 18:57	ORD 22:07	17%	6%	1.7%	76%
AA 2486 American Flight history →	SAT 13:32	ORD 16:38	19%	8%	1.0%	60%
UA 1316 United Flight history →	SAT 17:32	ORD 20:33	21%	8%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON