tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3293 American Flight history → SAT 07:23 PHL 12:04 8% 3% 0.8% 87%
AA 2489 American Flight history → SAT 14:10 PHL 18:55 21% 7% 0.8% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 38m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 54m Houston IAH 07:31 → PHL 11:58UA 2642 5h 28m 96% 88%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:40 → DAL 06:55WN 4512 50m Dallas DAL 07:45 → PHL 12:05WN 4329 5h 25m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 28m Dulles IAD 12:55 → PHL 14:10UA 3541 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464 2h 36m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575 8h 32m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 10h 09m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:55 → BNA 09:10WN 3557 1h 05m Nashville BNA 10:15 → PHL 13:20WN 623 5h 25m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON