Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4123 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4123 SAT 06:45 → PHX 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3585 SAT 17:35 → PHX 17:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4123 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 06:45	PHX 07:05	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 3906 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 08:41	PHX 09:16	8%	3%	0.6%	77%
WN 3587 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 11:00	PHX 11:20	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2053 American Flight history →	SAT 19:04	PHX 19:26	24%	8%	0.7%	84%
AA 2495 American Flight history →	SAT 15:46	PHX 16:10	25%	9%	0.6%	52%
WN 3585 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:35	PHX 17:55	30%	10%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON