tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3545 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3545 Southwest Flight history → SAT 06:15 SAN 07:05 6% 2% 0.6% 78%
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history → SAT 20:10 SAN 20:55 35% 12% 0.6% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 6h 10m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 05:40 → DAL 06:55WN 4512 55m Dallas DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192 5h 10m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 28m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 2h 53m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712 8h 14m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 10m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 7h 38m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:45 → PHX 07:05WN 4123 2h 10m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677 5h 50m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:46 → PHX 16:10AA 2495 56m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466 4h 32m 73% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573 1h 00m Houston HOU 20:40 → SAN 21:55WN 2072 5h 25m 72% 44%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 4h 55m 59% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON