Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 519 Alaska Flight history →	SAT 07:02	SEA 09:25	16%	2%	0.7%	83%
AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SAT 16:44	SEA 19:10	31%	7%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 55m	98%	88%
United Details →	SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471	1h 43m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	10h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	10h 15m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 10m	99%	84%
American Details →	SAT 08:41 → PHX 09:16AA 3906 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	11h 14m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471	1h 05m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	6h 15m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 19m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAT 12:50 → HOU 13:55WN 3566	50m Houston	HOU 14:45 → SEA 17:25WN 3566	6h 35m	59%	36%
Southwest Details →	SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963	6h 20m	54%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON