tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5479 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAT 07:00 SFO 08:55 14% 5% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323 2h 55m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 8h 08m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 10h 27m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 43m Houston IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 6h 55m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 10m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 2h 14m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 7h 16m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 8h 21m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:43 → IAH 12:55UA 6278 · flown by Mesa 2h 35m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 52m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:46 → PHX 16:10AA 2495 58m Phoenix PHX 17:08 → SFO 19:09AA 1613 5h 23m 74% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAT 19:04 → PHX 19:26AA 2053 57m Phoenix PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23AA 686 5h 19m 75% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON