Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4809 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4809 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 07:10	STL 09:15	4%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 3590 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 16:50	STL 19:00	23%	5%	0.5%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SAT 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 1353	1h 30m Dallas	DAL 09:15 → STL 11:00WN 1411	4h 25m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:20 → HOU 06:30WN 1315	50m Houston	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	4h 05m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 08m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	7h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	7h 03m	97%	87%
United Details →	SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:59UA 1464	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	7h 02m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	SAT 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 1471	3h 25m Denver	DEN 10:05 → STL 13:20WN 1753	7h 50m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	SAT 06:45 → PHX 07:05WN 4123	1h 35m Phoenix	PHX 08:40 → STL 13:40WN 1467	6h 55m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 57m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:00 → DAL 19:15WN 1316	55m Dallas	DAL 20:10 → STL 21:55WN 4444	3h 55m	62%	40%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:45 → MCO 21:30WN 2690	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 22:35 → STL 00:10 +1WN 142	6h 25m	74%	37%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576	50m Las Vegas	LAS 19:00 → STL 00:15 +1WN 4539	6h 55m	58%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON