tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4980 at 16:25, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4980 Southwest Flight history → SAT 16:25 TPA 20:00 27% 8% 12.8% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 48m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 4h 15m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 41m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 7h 32m 98% 71%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 06:55 → BNA 09:10WN 3557 2h 40m Nashville BNA 11:50 → TPA 14:40WN 684 6h 45m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 6h 19m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 7h 08m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 7h 15m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 33m 99% 70%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 07:10 → STL 09:15WN 4809 50m St Louis STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986 5h 15m 92% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON